New updated rates of trans-gender sexual offenders (2026)

 

Preamble …

It seems the far extremes of social media sanity (or insanity) are once again pushing statistically wildly inaccurate charts and diagrams of trans-gender women as offenders in the prison system in order to portray every trans-woman on the planet as some kind of sexual deviant. So, I am going to go through current census information and prison data for the UK, as this is mostly for some reason where these charts seem to have anchored their data.
Even though I made a chart last year, I emulated an existing one and went in to some very complex verbiage. This time, going to keep it ultra simple, list the exact reference data at the end so you the reader can verify the numbers yourself, do the math yourself and come up with the SAME numbers yourself – YES – No matter how good or bad they are. If my numbers show that trans-women are equally as offending as cis-gender males – I will show it.
The reference data itself is either peer data that maintains accurate numbers from known sources, or official government statistics. Not Facebook memes, youtube, a postie note I found stuck to the bottom of my shoe.
A pre-note on the results – the majority of trans-gender women are in fact housed in male facilities due to the fact they were identified as trans-gender during incarceration, not pre-incarceration, also those mostly are 'identifying as' trans, not actually 'trans-gender' (more on that later). Only around 6-10 are housed in female facilities due to being accurately vetted as trans-female.

After the chart will be all the corresponding data.

A little about the existing charts ...

What the ANTI-TRANS charts usually show are the male / female populations of the country, the inmate populations for sexual offenders and then so per-capita trans-gender offenders as an exponentially large group. The general probably with all these charts are that they get the census data wrong. Usually the base male / female population of the UK itself is off by about 10,000,000 people, considering that the population is only about 75,000,000, well, that's A LOT WRONG.
They also get the population of trans-gender people wrong by about 500%.
Then the UK prison system doesn't actually maintain categories of non-binary prisoners at all. This means that the 90-250 estimated prisoners in total (yes these are all usually grouped as sexual offenders by the ANTI-TRANS groups) are not broken down in to who they actually are, i.e. they/them, gender queer, trans-women, males identifying as women or cats or pet rocks. The only group we want statistics on is TRANS-WOMEN as that is the group that everyone likes pointing fingers at, not apparently trans-men, that are for some reason excluded from the harassment and finger pointing.

The core data …

How many males and females in the UK population -

There are approximately 34.45 million men in the United Kingdom, making up about 49.3% of the total population, approximately 35.48 million women.
total population is as of 2024 – 69,281,400.

How many trans-gender people in the UK -

There between 200,000 and 500,000. because people are fairly scared about exposing their gender even on census's, they generally list themselves as non-binary or simply not list anything. As of 2021 the census data showed only 262,000.
The generally considered rate of trans-gender people in any population is around 1% as per US figures, so it's more likely there are around 700,000 trans-gender people in the UK. Generally it's a known fact that there are roughly equal amount of trans-men and trans-women, so roughly 350,000 trans-women.

How many males and females in the UK prison population -

Total male prisoners as of 2026 – 97,800
Women in the UK prison system increased to 3,611 in November 2023 and is projected to increase further to 4,200 by November 2027. so that is 4,052 extrapolated for 2026.

How many males, female sexual offenders in the UK prison population -

The amount of sex offenders that are male in the prison population is 13,000.
Sex offenders that are female in the prison population is 130.

How many trans-gender people in the UK prison population -

As of the latest Ministry of Justice (HMPPS) data, there were 295 transgender prisoners in England and Wales.
Legal Gender: 245 prisoners had a legal gender of male, while 50 were legally female
Gender Identity: Of the recorded individuals, 227 (77%) identified as transgender female, 49 (17%) as transgender male, and 11 (4%) as non-binary.
50 were legally female. This last statistic means that out of the gender identity numbers where we have 49 list as trans-male, this means biologically female,
The above numbers do not include 10 individuals known to hold a Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC), however, gender unknown for these 10, likely a 50/50 split as this is roughly how the 10,000 GRC's are currently distributed.
Legal gender as defined by the UK prison system is the gender recorded on a person’s birth certificate, or on their Gender Recognition Certificate where they have acquired one.
The total number of trans-gender women in the UK prison system as of 28 November 2024 is – 227
These individuals as far as current evidence have officially had a local transgender case board and live in (or present in) a gender different from their biological sex. So for now, I will assume that these are legitimate trans-gender individuals.

How many trans-gender women who are sexual offenders in the UK prison population -

151 that identified themselves as trans-women during interviews. HOWEVER, this 151 includes also NON-BINARY prisoners and also DOES NOT state if these prisoners are self identifying or in the officially diagnosed or prison system evaluated group. In the interview process, this is done while incarcerated by prison staff and not my external medical professionals. We also just don't know based on the available statistical breakdown who is self-identifying, who is actually trans-gender female but without a GRC and who is simply gender non-conforming / non-binary. We DO NOT KNOW. All we do know about this group of 151 inmates are that they are biologically male and likely a vast majority simply on TESTOSTERONE and not ESTROGEN.
What is known by the “inside” is that there are a considerable amount of 'fake' trans-gender prisoners who admit to post-incarceration transitioning to allow them access to females and to also reduce sentencing. This is a partial reason why MOST “trans-female” prisoners are still housed in male facilities. Only SIX were legitimately in female prisons and 11 obtaining a GRC. These last numbers are as of 2023. This then gives credence to the 151 offenders still being on testosterone and not estrogen.

The numbers breakdown as of 2025 / 2026 …

	UK Population	Prison Pop	Offenders	Per-Capita p/Million
Cis-gender MALE	34,450,000	97,800	13,000	377.36 per million
Cis-gender FEMALE	35,480,000	4,052	130	3.664 per million
Trans Self Identifying / non-binary / gender non-conforming - MALE	350,000	227	151	431.43 per million
Trans FEMALE (GRC)	350,000	227	10	3.5 per million

The main thing to remember here is that being on testosterone isn't 100% verified way to gauge who will be a sexual offender. It very much comes down to a persons upbringing and inter-social early stage confrontations too. There is a significant amount of research that still needs to occur to isolate why males are the primary offenders in this category. Being simply trans-gender isn't a key factor. What we can see from the above statistics is that the known officially registered trans-gender females are even LESS prone to sexual offending than cis-gender women. Part of this maybe due to a different brain chemistry and brain cortex developed in-utero at week 19 gestation. There are numerous brain scan studies that have shown that a trans-gender brain structure either closely matches a female brain cortex or is somewhere in between male and female. 

See my other blog on genetics and neuroscience … 

https://princesspnut22.blogspot.com/2026/02/just-facts-maam.html

It also shows that the 151 Trans Self Identifying / non-binary / gender non-conforming group are likely simply normal cis-gender male brain structures and not on estrogen as they are closely matched to the per million cis-gender male offenders. The takeaway from this 151 member group is that statistically, it's a meaningless number as we cannot subdivide and extract additional trans-gender women who are not on a GRC.

The differences those between the non-binary group and the cis-gender males in real terms are closer than they are different given the 3.664 ppm cis-gender women, so yes, in that grouping of NON-GRC trans-women, males = males. Whereas the GRC trans-women = cis-gender women. However with this number of 10 holding a GRC, we don't know how many are actually biologically female, statistics gathered here however show a 10 to 1 ratio roughly, so likely 9 are trans-women, but this shift doesn't much change our 3.5 ppm result.

 

References used in determining the above statistical data …

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2024
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5b3a478240f0b64603fc181b/GEO-LGBT-factsheet.pdf
https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/publications/trans-adults-united-states/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/314700/uk-prison-population/?srsltid=AfmBOopwUwveJZdwmJoKqAM-5tnOgDFd51M6O4G767FO0J50pCpy286L
https://www.womeninprison.org.uk/news/women-in-prison-respond-to-womens-prison-population-predicted-rise-of-16-by-nov-2027/
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmpps-offender-equalities-annual-report-2023-to-2024/hmpps-offender-equalities-report-202324
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/offender-management-statistics-quarterly
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/offender-management-statistics-quarterly
https://insidetime.org/newsround/some-trans-prisoners-are-faking-it-moj-study-finds/